Journal of Economic, Finance Research and Review (JEFRR) · Research article · Open access
Hidden Vulnerability Under Global Shocks: A Dynamic Resilience Index for Import-Dependent Food Systems—Evidence from Jordan
Khaled Lafy AL Naif
13 July 2026 · Vol. 2, Issue 7, pp. 384-396
DOI: 10.65150/EP-jefrr/V2E7/2026-03
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What is this article about?
This study examines the evolution of cereal import dependence and food system resilience in Jordan over the period 1961–2023 using FAO data. Import dependence is measured by the Import Dependence Ratio (IDR), while a Dynamic Resilience Index (DRI) is developed to integrate dependence levels with temporal volatility.
Article at a glance
- Published
- 13 July 2026
- Volume / issue / pages
- Vol. 2, Issue 7, pp. 384-396
- ISSN
- 3051-3650 (online) · 3051-3642 (print)
- Licence
- CC BY 4.0 — free to read and reuse with attribution
- Peer review
- Double-blind, at least two independent reviewers
- Publisher
- EP Journals Group
Abstract
This study examines the evolution of cereal import dependence and food system resilience in Jordan over the period 1961–2023 using FAO data. Import dependence is measured by the Import Dependence Ratio (IDR), while a Dynamic Resilience Index (DRI) is developed to integrate dependence levels with temporal volatility. The results reveal a structural shift from a moderately dependent and volatile system to one characterized by persistently high and seemingly stable import dependence since the late 1970s. However, this apparent stability masks latent vulnerability, as the DRI indicates declining resilience driven by the interaction between high dependence and volatility. The analysis further shows that major global shocks (2008, 2020, and 2022) exert a significant negative effect on resilience. Scenario analysis suggests convergence toward a structurally low-resilience equilibrium under current conditions. The findings highlight the need for policies targeting both dependence reduction and volatility management.
Keywords: Dynamic resilience index, Food system resilience, Global shocks, Import dependence, Volatility
Cite this article
Khaled Lafy AL Naif (2026). Hidden Vulnerability Under Global Shocks: A Dynamic Resilience Index for Import-Dependent Food Systems—Evidence from Jordan. Journal of Economic, Finance Research and Review, 2(7), 384-396. https://doi.org/10.65150/EP-jefrr/V2E7/2026-03
@article{Khaled2026,
title = {Hidden Vulnerability Under Global Shocks: A Dynamic Resilience Index for Import-Dependent Food Systems—Evidence from Jordan},
author = {Khaled Lafy AL Naif},
journal = {Journal of Economic, Finance Research and Review},
year = {2026},
volume = {2},
number = {7},
pages = {384-396},
doi = {10.65150/EP-jefrr/V2E7/2026-03},
url = {https://doi.org/10.65150/EP-jefrr/V2E7/2026-03}
}Questions about this article
Who wrote this article?
Khaled Lafy AL Naif.
Where and when was it published?
In Journal of Economic, Finance Research and Review, Volume 2, Issue 7, pages 384-396, published by EP Journals Group on 13 July 2026.
Is this article free to read?
Yes. It is open access under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 (CC BY 4.0) licence, so anyone can read, share and reuse it with attribution.
What is the DOI of this article?
10.65150/EP-jefrr/V2E7/2026-03 (https://doi.org/10.65150/EP-jefrr/V2E7/2026-03).
How do I cite this article?
APA: Khaled Lafy AL Naif (2026). Hidden Vulnerability Under Global Shocks: A Dynamic Resilience Index for Import-Dependent Food Systems—Evidence from Jordan. Journal of Economic, Finance Research and Review, 2(7), 384-396. https://doi.org/10.65150/EP-jefrr/V2E7/2026-03
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