Global Journal of Engineering and Technology Research (GJETR) · Research article · Open access
Forecasting Fire Incidents and Direct Property Losses in Vietnam: A Comparative Time-Series Study
Nguyen Thi Lan Anh
25 April 2026 · Vol. 2, Issue 4, pp. 115-120
DOI: 10.65150/EP-gjetr/V2E4/2026-02
Download full text (PDF)Cite this article
What is this article about?
This article compares several short-term time-series models for forecasting fire incidents and direct property losses caused by fire in Vietnam. The study uses annual data for the 2020–2025 period compiled from official releases and published materials of the Fire Prevention, Firefighting and Rescue Police Department.
Article at a glance
- Published
- 25 April 2026
- Volume / issue / pages
- Vol. 2, Issue 4, pp. 115-120
- ISSN
- 3051-3782 (online) · 3051-3774 (print)
- Licence
- CC BY 4.0 — free to read and reuse with attribution
- Peer review
- Double-blind, at least two independent reviewers
- Publisher
- EP Journals Group
Abstract
This article compares several short-term time-series models for forecasting fire incidents and direct property losses caused by fire in Vietnam. The study uses annual data for the 2020–2025 period compiled from official releases and published materials of the Fire Prevention, Firefighting and Rescue Police Department. Five forecasting methods are employed: the average absolute increase method, the average growth rate method, linear trend regression, simple exponential smoothing, and the three-year moving average. The results show that the three-year moving average model is the most suitable for both indicators. According to this model, Vietnam may record approximately 3,568 fire incidents and VND 774.08 billion in direct property losses in 2026. The article also indicates that although the share of direct fire-related property losses in GDP remains small, the actual economic impact of fire on firms, households, and supply chains is substantial. The study therefore underscores the role of fire forecasting in fire prevention, firefighting, rescue operations, and economic risk governance.
Keywords: fire incidents, direct property losses, time-series models, short-term forecasting, fire prevention, firefighting and rescue, Vietnam
Cite this article
Nguyen Thi Lan Anh (2026). Forecasting Fire Incidents and Direct Property Losses in Vietnam: A Comparative Time-Series Study. Global Journal of Engineering and Technology Research, 2(4), 115-120. https://doi.org/10.65150/EP-gjetr/V2E4/2026-02
@article{Nguyen2026,
title = {Forecasting Fire Incidents and Direct Property Losses in Vietnam: A Comparative Time-Series Study},
author = {Nguyen Thi Lan Anh},
journal = {Global Journal of Engineering and Technology Research},
year = {2026},
volume = {2},
number = {4},
pages = {115-120},
doi = {10.65150/EP-gjetr/V2E4/2026-02},
url = {https://doi.org/10.65150/EP-gjetr/V2E4/2026-02}
}Questions about this article
Who wrote this article?
Nguyen Thi Lan Anh.
Where and when was it published?
In Global Journal of Engineering and Technology Research, Volume 2, Issue 4, pages 115-120, published by EP Journals Group on 25 April 2026.
Is this article free to read?
Yes. It is open access under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 (CC BY 4.0) licence, so anyone can read, share and reuse it with attribution.
What is the DOI of this article?
10.65150/EP-gjetr/V2E4/2026-02 (https://doi.org/10.65150/EP-gjetr/V2E4/2026-02).
How do I cite this article?
APA: Nguyen Thi Lan Anh (2026). Forecasting Fire Incidents and Direct Property Losses in Vietnam: A Comparative Time-Series Study. Global Journal of Engineering and Technology Research, 2(4), 115-120. https://doi.org/10.65150/EP-gjetr/V2E4/2026-02
More research from GJETR
- Optimized Deep Convolutional Networks for MRI Brain Tumor Classification and Segmentation: A Systematic Review
Maher Talal Al-Asaady · Oct 2026
- Industry Micro-Credential Infusion in PQF Level 5 Technology Diploma Programs: Opportunities and Challenges
Gamaliel B. Vicente Jr., Alma O. Medio, Redjie D. Arcadio · Oct 2026
- Assessment of Process Mapping, Risk Management, and Iso 9001 Quality Management Standards: Basis for a Technology-Enabled Quality Management Framework
Patrick E. Arendain, Redjie D. Arcadio · Oct 2026
- Integrating Solar-Powered PV Cells And SCR-Controlled Three-Phase Rectifiers to Design A Two-Level DC Grid Architecture
Sadia Sultana Turna, Amzad Ali Sarkar · Oct 2026
- Density Functional Theory Investigation of Defect-Induced Electronic Behavior in Iodine-Deficient Mapbi₃ Perovskites for Solar Cells
Sani Kado, Muhammad Y. Onimisi, Dahiru M. Sanni · Sept 2026